If Trump abandons Ukraine, can Europe help Kyiv fight on? The clock is ticking to answer that

LONDON AP President Donald Trump is pushing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the war threatening to walk away if a deal becomes too arduous and causing alarm bells in Europe about how to fill the gap Ukraine s European allies view the war as fundamental to the continent s measure and pressure is now mounting to find means to patronage Kyiv militarily regardless of whether Trump pulls out Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accusing him of prolonging the killing field by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow Trump s land-for-peace plan would mark a substantial shift in the post-World War II order ripping up conventions that have long held that borders should not be redrawn by force It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and million people died mentioned Fran ois Heisbourg special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany Europeans will not accept it and Ukraine will not either he stated Can Ukraine fight without U S aid Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the U S decides to walk They range from the U S ceasing direct aid to Ukraine but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv to Trump banning transfers of any American apparatus including components or platform in European weapons Any withdrawal of U S military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe analysts and diplomats explained The Associated Press Kyiv s ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons and how fleetly the gaps left by Washington can be filled If it were easy Europe would already be doing things without America noted a European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter Where would the money come from No new U S aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Trump came into office even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington according to the Keil Institute Europe has contributed around billion particular billion more than the U S although Washington slightly outpaces Europe when it comes to military aid the Germany-based institute commented It will be hard but there are procedures Europe can find cash to fund Ukraine including seizing frozen Russian assets but money isn t what you shoot bullets with Heisbourg announced Europe s big mistake was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking this war started in February and not in February when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea noted Thomas Gomart director of IFRI a French international affairs think tank Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine while confronting constraints on production quota a fragmented defense industry and a decades-long reliance on the U S Certain extra production maximum could come from Ukraine which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia s invasion Much harder to replace experts reported are advanced American weapons including air defenses Can U S weapons systems be replaced Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Putin s forces invaded in February flooding the skies with missiles and drones including dummy attack drones to exhaust Ukraine s limited air defenses In April at least people were killed in multiple strikes The death toll from the Russian attacks would inevitably be higher without the American Patriot air-defense missile systems protecting Ukraine s skies mentioned Douglas Barrie senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles including the hypersonic Kinzhal which Putin has boasted was unstoppable Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure including the country s strength grid Earlier this month Zelenskyy requested to buy Patriots a request Trump dismissed You don t start a war against someone times your size and then hope that people give you particular missiles he reported a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed people France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP T air-defense system but the issue is not quality it s quantity Barrie noted pointing to the larger U S defense industrial base and greater U S stockpiles Although Trump criticized Putin over the weekend for his missile strikes and suggested imposing more sanctions on Russia for Europe it remains a wait-and-see meeting The whiplash of Trump s aggressive foreign plan means nothing is off the cards experts declared A worst-case scenario could see a ban on American weapons exports and transfers to Ukraine which would bar European nations from buying U S weapons to give to Kyiv or transferring weapons with American components or platform Barrie explained That could mean countries including Germany that have already given American Patriots to Ukraine would be prohibited from doing so Such a move would seriously hamper Europe s ability to endorsement Kyiv and mark a fundamental shift in America s relationship with its allies It s one thing for the U S to cease to be an ally it is another for the U S to be an enemy Heisbourg disclosed noting that such a step could also damage the U S defense sector if weapons purchases were perceived to be unusable on Trump s political order Filling the gap on intelligence sharing In March the Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine in a bid to force Zelenskyy to accept a truce with Russia The about weeklong suspension impacted Ukraine s ability to track and target Russian troops tanks and ships There are certain capabilities including higher-end surveillance and reconnaissance using satellites that only the United States can provide announced Matthew Kroenig vice president of the Atlantic Council s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Safeguard in Washington While the extent of intelligence sharing between the U S and Ukraine is not known experts reported it likely shows Kyiv near real-time buildup of Russian troop deployments and helps target long-range strikes Ukraine s allies do not have as much satellite capability as the U S but could launch more or Ukraine could use commercial systems if Trump cuts off intelligence again experts declared The latter would likely have to come from a European provider in March the American satellite imagery company Maxar Technologies substantiated it temporarily suspended access to unclassified satellite images following the administration s decision to pull intelligence sharing Ukraine also requirements an alternative to Elon Musk s satellite architecture Starlink which is critical for Ukrainian defensive and civilian communications European defense companies are discussing creating a satellite alliance but don t at this moment have an alternative on the same scale Would Ukraine collapse without U S encouragement If Trump walks away or if Kyiv rejects a deal and keeps fighting with European aid it won t necessarily mean the collapse of Ukraine although more people will almost certainly die if the U S pulls its air defenses and intelligence-sharing capabilities Heisbourg disclosed Trump has jolted European leaders into awareness that they need to take responsibility for their own defense regardless of who occupies the White House experts commented That means European nations need to invest more in defense work together to scale up military production and build trust to share intelligence This issue is not a question about the next two months or the next two years This issue is about the next two decades Gomart announced Source